WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.090 --> 00:00:07.849 [ MUSIC ] US 2 00:00:08.029 --> 00:00:10.729 midterms don't typically get a lot of attention but this 3 00:00:10.729 --> 00:00:13.759 year it's different. The 2018 Congressional election 4 00:00:13.759 --> 00:00:16.734 has solidified its status as a coast- to- coast battle for 5 00:00:16.734 --> 00:00:19.309 the House with both President Trump and former 6 00:00:19.309 --> 00:00:21.929 President Barrack Obama hitting the campaign trail to 7 00:00:21.929 --> 00:00:24.929 back candidates The elections are slated to not only 8 00:00:24.929 --> 00:00:27.369 determine the balance of power in Congress, but they 9 00:00:27.389 --> 00:00:29.819 also have the potential to shape the strategies and 10 00:00:29.819 --> 00:00:32.839 identities of the two parties heading into the 2020 11 00:00:32.839 --> 00:00:35.629 presidential race. Right now, Republicans have the 12 00:00:35.629 --> 00:00:38.019 majority in both the House of Representatives and the 13 00:00:38.019 --> 00:00:42.229 Senate. Re- election is such a big deal 14 00:00:42.229 --> 00:00:46.279 because it represents Enormous 15 00:00:46.279 --> 00:00:48.469 stakes for both parties. If the republicans keep the 16 00:00:48.469 --> 00:00:52.539 house, they will see it as a reinforcement of Trump's 17 00:00:52.539 --> 00:00:55.729 mandate. And for the democrats, it's an opportunity to 18 00:00:56.009 --> 00:00:58.809 put a check on president Trump, and try to use 19 00:00:58.809 --> 00:01:01.439 congressional power to get at some of these scandals 20 00:01:01.439 --> 00:01:03.899 that have already been plaguing his presidency. House 21 00:01:03.899 --> 00:01:06.719 members serve a two year term, so every seat is up 22 00:01:06.719 --> 00:01:11.689 for grabs. Right now Republicans have 236 out of 435 23 00:01:11.689 --> 00:01:15.749 seats. Democrats have 193 and six are vacant. 24 00:01:16.019 --> 00:01:18.739 And there are a record number of house members not 25 00:01:18.739 --> 00:01:21.719 seeking re- election in 2018, with more than 40 26 00:01:21.719 --> 00:01:23.989 Republicans not running again, including House 27 00:01:23.989 --> 00:01:27.449 Speaker Paul Ryan So what happens if dems manage 28 00:01:27.449 --> 00:01:30.669 to take the house. Its very unlikely that they will be 29 00:01:30.669 --> 00:01:34.819 able to pass, meaningful registration to advance 30 00:01:34.819 --> 00:01:37.859 their agenda. So its highly unlikely that we're gonna see 31 00:01:37.909 --> 00:01:41.229 anything like medicare for all. What is very likely, is 32 00:01:41.229 --> 00:01:44.429 that democrats will use the powers of congressional 33 00:01:44.429 --> 00:01:47.099 subpoena, and congressional investigation. To 34 00:01:47.099 --> 00:01:50.659 investigate this president who has been accused of so 35 00:01:50.659 --> 00:01:54.689 many ethical lapses. But flipping the House is rare. 36 00:01:54.839 --> 00:01:57.869 In fact, in the past 25 years, it's only happened three 37 00:01:57.869 --> 00:02:01.349 times. Yet, each time voters favor the party not in the 38 00:02:01.349 --> 00:02:04.239 White House. This combined with voter energy, has 39 00:02:04.239 --> 00:02:08.669 democrats optimistic. Voters are really interested in 40 00:02:08.759 --> 00:02:11.854 this year's midterms, partly because of what happened 41 00:02:11.854 --> 00:02:15.679 in the 2016 election. Voter turnout in the primaries 42 00:02:15.939 --> 00:02:18.989 among Democrats doubled from 2014 levels, and 43 00:02:19.119 --> 00:02:22.819 you're also seeing a tremendous amount of activism 44 00:02:22.819 --> 00:02:26.609 over the last two years that has all been building up to 45 00:02:26.774 --> 00:02:30.689 this year's midterms. And after a divisive 2016 46 00:02:30.689 --> 00:02:34.239 Democratic primary, the party is experiencing a revival 47 00:02:34.239 --> 00:02:37.609 of sorts. There is a tremendous amount of enthusiasm 48 00:02:37.669 --> 00:02:41.839 around registering and mobilizing voters of color, and 49 00:02:41.839 --> 00:02:46.159 white suburban moms living in these 50 00:02:46.469 --> 00:02:49.654 Districts that have kinda [ UNKNOWN ] conservative in 51 00:02:49.654 --> 00:02:52.689 the past, but now are open for pick up for the 52 00:02:52.689 --> 00:02:55.769 Democrats. There are a lot of college educated women 53 00:02:55.769 --> 00:02:58.469 who woke up after the 2016 election and said, this is 54 00:02:58.469 --> 00:03:00.089 not the country that I thought I was going to rest my 55 00:03:00.089 --> 00:03:02.209 kids in. And have basically spend the last two years 56 00:03:02.209 --> 00:03:05.149 knocking on doors for Democrats. Meanwhile Trump's 57 00:03:05.149 --> 00:03:08.309 outsider politics continues to reign supreme for 58 00:03:08.309 --> 00:03:12.029 Republicans. So Republicans have really been leaning 59 00:03:12.059 --> 00:03:14.809 into Trumpism. The energy is around people who are 60 00:03:14.809 --> 00:03:17.829 really embracing Trump's agenda. And it's not just 61 00:03:17.829 --> 00:03:20.279 Congress that could change, there are 36 62 00:03:20.579 --> 00:03:23.059 governorships up for grads and more 6, 000 63 00:03:23.059 --> 00:03:26.159 members of state legislatures will be elected. A record 64 00:03:26.159 --> 00:03:28.779 number of women are running for office and this year's 65 00:03:28.779 --> 00:03:31.269 candidates could make history. Arizona and 66 00:03:31.269 --> 00:03:33.579 Tennessee could send women to the US Senate for the 67 00:03:33.579 --> 00:03:36.349 first time. US House of Representatives could get its 68 00:03:36.349 --> 00:03:39.089 first Somali- American and Native American women. 69 00:03:39.689 --> 00:03:42.639 But ultimately it will be voter turnout that will determine 70 00:03:42.689 --> 00:03:46.379 this election. There's a tremendous amount of energy 71 00:03:46.379 --> 00:03:49.829 and enthusiasm around getting voters who dont 72 00:03:49.829 --> 00:03:52.369 typically show up to the midterms to actually show up 73 00:03:52.389 --> 00:03:55.719 and vote this year. And so, if the voter base is 74 00:03:55.739 --> 00:03:58.024 significantly different then it's likely that the results will 75 00:03:58.024 --> 00:03:59.619 also be significantly different.